TBM Report
A groundbreaking study published in the world-renowned medical journal The Lancet has confirmed that the actual number of violent deaths in the Gaza Strip is significantly higher than previously reported. The study, titled “Gaza Mortality Survey (GMS),” reveals that as of early 2025, over 75,200 “violent deaths” have occurred since the conflict began on October 7, 2023. This data contradicts international skepticism regarding the accuracy of Gaza’s Ministry of Health figures, suggesting that the ministry’s reports have been conservative rather than exaggerated.
The research indicates that the verified death toll accounts for approximately 3.4% of Gaza’s total pre-war population. At a time when the local health ministry reported 49,090 deaths, the Lancet-published findings showed a figure 34.7% higher. Professor Michael Spagat of Royal Holloway University, the study’s lead author, emphasized that the ministry’s figures are credible but likely represent the lowest possible estimate, as they do not account for thousands of bodies remaining under the rubble.
Significantly, the demographic breakdown of the fatalities aligns closely with Palestinian official data. Women, children, and the elderly constitute 56.2% of the total deaths, reinforcing the systematic impact on civilians. The GMS survey utilized a rigorous evidence-based framework, conducting interviews with 9,729 individuals across 2,000 households. This scientific approach provides a robust foundation for understanding the true extent of the human loss in Gaza, challenging the Israeli military’s occasional dismissals of Palestinian statistics.
Despite Israeli claims of inaccuracy, even some Israeli military officials have privately acknowledged figures near 70,000. The Lancet study builds upon previous statistical modeling, such as the “capture-recapture” method, providing an even more detailed picture of the mortality crisis. As the international community debates the humanitarian crisis, these findings provide a definitive, evidence-led documentation of the devastation in Gaza, urging a re-evaluation of the conflict’s toll on human life.
