The 2024 US presidential election is shaping up to be a tight contest, and many are wondering when they will know who the next president will be. Historically, election results can be declared within hours of polls closing, but a close race often means a longer wait.
How Soon Will We Know Who Won the 2024 US Election?
American voters head to the polls on 5 November. In some past elections, a winner was named on the night of the election or by the early morning hours. However, with this year’s razor-thin competition, media outlets may be more cautious, potentially delaying any official projections. This year’s race sees Democrat Kamala Harris, the current Vice President, facing off against Republican Donald Trump, the former president, in a highly competitive election that could take days to declare a winner.
Key Factors Influencing the 2024 US Election Results Timeline
The 2024 election has several unique factors that could affect how quickly results are declared:
- Recounts in Swing States: In critical states like Pennsylvania, a recount is mandatory if the margin between candidates is within half a percentage point. In 2020, Pennsylvania’s margin was only slightly wider at 1.1 percentage points, so a close result in this swing state could lead to delays.
- Legal Challenges: This year, more than 100 pre-election lawsuits have been filed, primarily by Republicans, focusing on voter eligibility and management of voter rolls. These legal disputes could also delay results, especially if they lead to additional counts or challenge specific voting practices.
- Potential Polling Delays: Election-related disorder, especially at polling locations, could extend vote counting. Additionally, mail-in votes, especially from military personnel and citizens living abroad, can be among the last to be counted, potentially adding to the timeline.
On the other hand, some factors may speed up the process. For instance, states like Michigan have accelerated vote counting procedures, and fewer mail-in ballots are expected than in 2020 due to the end of Covid-19 restrictions.
Swing States to Watch in the 2024 US Election
This year’s election could come down to the results from several key swing states where polls are closing at different times, potentially impacting how quickly results are declared. Here are some key states to keep an eye on:
- Georgia: Polls close at 19:00 EST (00:00 GMT). Early and mail-in ballots are expected to be counted first, and the state anticipates about 75% of votes will be counted within the first few hours. A complete tally could come in later that night.
- North Carolina: Polls close at 19:30 EST. Results are expected by the end of the night, although delays could occur in areas affected by a recent hurricane.
- Pennsylvania: Polls close at 20:00 EST (01:00 GMT). Since Pennsylvania only begins counting ballots on election day morning, experts anticipate a longer wait, with a result likely taking at least 24 hours.
- Michigan: Polls close at 21:00 EST (02:00 GMT). Early counting has been allowed for a week before election day, with results expected by Wednesday evening.
- Wisconsin: Like Michigan, Wisconsin expects results by Wednesday, although larger cities may take longer to finish counting.
- Arizona: Initial results could appear by 22:00 EST (03:00 GMT), but more complete results may not come until early Wednesday. Postal ballots returned on election day could take up to 13 days to count, particularly in Maricopa County.
- Nevada: With mail-in ballots allowed until 9 November if postmarked by election day, Nevada’s final results may take several days.
What Happens if 2024 US Election Results Are Disputed?
In case of disputes, the electoral process has built-in procedures to address challenges. After all valid votes are counted, the electoral college system comes into play, with each state awarding electoral votes based on the winner of its popular vote. To officially confirm a winner, electors meet on 17 December, and the new US Congress counts these votes on 6 January to certify the president-elect.
The 2020 election saw former President Trump challenge the results, leading to a notable incident at the US Capitol on 6 January. Since then, electoral reforms have tightened rules to prevent similar challenges by ensuring that lawmakers cannot easily object to certified state results and clarifying that the vice-president cannot unilaterally reject electoral votes.
Although Republican leaders, including Trump, have hinted at not accepting a loss, these reforms make it more challenging to dispute certified results. Nevertheless, local and state-level efforts to delay certification could still emerge, potentially prolonging the process if results are exceptionally close.
The Presidential Inauguration Date
Once confirmed, the president-elect will be inaugurated on 20 January 2025, marking the beginning of the new term. The ceremony will be held on the grounds of the US Capitol complex, where the 60th president in US history will take the oath of office, pledging to uphold the Constitution. This inaugural event marks the formal transfer of power and the start of the new administration. Source: BBC