Desk Report: As Ramadan approaches in 2025, the familiar pattern of rising prices for essential commodities has once again emerged, putting financial strain on low- and fixed-income families. From coarse rice and soybean oil to chickpeas, dates, and eggs, the cost of staple items has surged, raising questions about whether this is a natural result of increased demand or a consequence of market manipulation.
Price Trends in 2025
A week before the start of Ramadan, prices for several key items were higher compared to the previous year. For instance, coarse rice, edible oil, chickpeas, dates, and eggs saw significant price hikes. However, some relief came in the form of stable prices for sugar, potatoes, onions, chicken meat, and non-brand flour.
This trend is not new. In 2022, most commodity prices spiked sharply before Ramadan. In 2023, the situation was mixed, with some items becoming more expensive while others saw price drops. In 2024, prices of most products decreased slightly. However, 2025 has seen a return to the familiar pattern of rising costs, despite increased imports of soybean oil, chickpeas, and dates.
What’s Driving the Price Hikes?
Experts point to a combination of factors, including natural market forces, supply chain manipulation, corporate dominance, and weak government oversight.
- Economic Factors:
Bangladesh has been grappling with high inflation and a depreciating local currency, which has lost over 30% of its value against the US dollar since 2022. This has driven up the cost of imported goods like edible oil. - Market Manipulation:
Khondaker Golam Moazzem, research director at the Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD), describes the situation as a “game” played by traders. As demand spikes during Ramadan, many in the supply chain take advantage to maximize profits. Weak government oversight allows this practice to continue unchecked. - Corporate Control:
A handful of large companies dominate key markets such as sugar and edible oil. Abul Hashem, a wholesaler in Dhaka’s Moulvibazar, explains that these companies can create artificial shortages by reducing imports, which drives prices up. - Retailer Practices:
Retailers also contribute to the problem by raising prices beyond justifiable limits during periods of high demand. Sumon Howlader, president of the Bangladesh Poultry Association, highlights how corporate groups control supply chains, artificially inflating costs.
Government Efforts and Challenges
The government has attempted to address the issue through measures such as market raids, temporary price caps, and direct imports of essential goods. However, these interventions have largely been short-term fixes that fail to address the root causes of the problem.
SM Nazer Hossain, vice-president of the Consumers Association of Bangladesh (CAB), criticizes the current approach to market monitoring, calling it a “media trial” rather than an effective regulatory strategy. He emphasizes the lack of follow-up actions after raids, which undermines their impact.
Long-Term Solutions Needed
Experts argue that a more sustainable approach is needed to tackle the recurring price hikes. Moazzem suggests implementing a digital market tracking system to monitor supply and demand in real time, enabling timely government intervention.
However, skepticism remains about whether such measures will be implemented, given the close ties between large corporate groups and the government. “These groups have become so powerful that the government hesitates to take action against them,” Moazzem said.
What Lies Ahead?
Historically, prices of essential goods tend to stabilize or even decline a week into Ramadan, according to data from the Trading Corporation of Bangladesh (TCB). If this pattern holds, consumers may see some relief after the initial surge.
However, without addressing the underlying issues of corporate dominance and weak oversight, the cycle of price hikes is likely to repeat itself in future Ramadan seasons. For now, consumers, particularly those with limited incomes, are left to adjust their budgets and navigate the challenges of rising costs during the holy month.